MPC 06 Explain Type I and Type II errors, with suitable examples. (Marks 6)

 

Q. Explain Type I and Type II errors, with suitable examples.                                             6

Type I Error

 When the null hypothesis is true rejecting it is an error and this kind of error is known as type I error in statistics. The probability of making a type I error is denoted as ‘α’ (read as alpha).

A Type I error occurs when we reject the null hypothesis even though it is actually true. In terms of the research hypothesis, we make a Type I error when we conclude that the study supports the research hypothesis when in reality the research hypothesis is false.

Suppose we conduct a study and set the significance level (α) at a relatively lenient value, such as 20% (0.20). This high alpha level means we are allowing a fairly large probability of rejecting the null hypothesis (H₀) even when it is actually true.

In practical terms, this means we do not require very strong evidence (i.e., very extreme data) to reject the null hypothesis. As a result, if we were to conduct many such studies, we would expect to make a Type I error — that is, incorrectly rejecting a true null hypothesis — in about 20% of those studies.

Thus, by setting α = 0.20, we are saying that we are willing to accept a 20% chance of falsely concluding that the research hypothesis is supported when, in fact, it is not.

Even when we set the significance level at the conventional levels of .05 or .01, there is still a chance of making a Type I error—rejecting the null hypothesis when it is actually true. This means that in 5% or 1% of studies (depending on the level chosen), researchers may conclude that an effect exists when it does not.

Consider the example of evaluating a new therapy for depression. Suppose this new therapy is actually no more effective than the usual treatment. However, if researchers randomly select one depressed patient for a study, they might, by chance, pick someone who responds especially well to either treatment. In such a case, the outcome might suggest a difference in effectiveness even though there truly isn't one.

If the data from this single patient leads the psychologists to reject the null hypothesis, they would incorrectly conclude that the new therapy is different from the standard one. This would be a Type I error—an error that occurs not due to bias or misconduct, but simply due to random variation in sampling.

Researchers cannot know when they’ve made a Type I error in any specific case. However, they take comfort in the fact that the statistical method limits the probability of such an error to a low, predefined rate—such as 5% when using a .05 significance level.

The significance level—which represents the probability of making a Type I error—is denoted by the Greek letter α (alpha). The lower the alpha level, the smaller the chance of committing a Type I error.

Type II Error

 When null hypothesis is false, a decision to accept it is known as type II error.

When we choose a very strict significance level, such as 0.001, we greatly reduce the likelihood of making a Type I error—that is, rejecting the null hypothesis when it is actually true. However, this increases the risk of a different kind of mistake.

 In such a case, even if the research hypothesis is actually true, the results may not be extreme enough to cross the high threshold required to reject the null hypothesis. Specifically, even if the research hypothesis is correct, the evidence might not be strong enough to meet the high threshold required to reject the null hypothesis. This situation results in a Type II error—failing to recognize a true effect. In practical terms, this means the study may appear to show no significant result, even though the research hypothesis is actually valid.

 Considering the above example of evaluating a new therapy for depression. Suppose this new therapy is actually effective than the usual treatment. The null hypothesis states that the therapy has no effect, while the alternative hypothesis states that the therapy is effective. If the researcher conducts a statistical test and fails to reject the null hypothesis concluding that the new therapy is not effective, when in fact it does have an effect, this would be a Type II error.

The probability of making a Type II error is denoted by β (beta).


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